VIRTUAL REALITY: Is it Erap vs. Noli?

By Tony Lopez

Will the May 2010 presidential election be a fight between Vice President Noli de Castro and former President Joseph Ejercito Estrada?
That seems to be the emerging trend, based on a survey conducted May 4 to 17, 2009 by Pulse Asia. Noli de Castro led the pack with 18 percent of voters picking him, followed closely by popular young Sen, Francis “Chiz” Escudero, 17 percent, and Estrada, 15 percent.

The survey involved 1,200 respondents and has a three percentage-point margin of error. That means de Castro, Escudero and Estrada are in a statistical tie for first place.

An Erap-Noli tussle is possible only if the ousted former president were allowed by the Supreme Court to run. Estrada thinks the Supreme Court will have no choice but qualify him to run based on the doctrine of sovereign will of the people.

In second tier are: former Senate President Manuel Villar Jr, 14 percent and Sen. Manuel Araneta “Mar” Roxas 2nd, 13 percent. In the third group are single-digit presidentiables: Sen. Loren Legarda, 7 percent; Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, 4 percent; Sen. Panfilo Lacson, 4 percent; Sen. Richard Gordon, 1 percent; telco tycoon Manuel Pangilinan, 1 percent; Chief Justice Reynato Puno, 1 percent; and Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, 1 percent.

Estrada thinks Noli de Castro is the administration’s frontrunner candidate. That being the case, the vice president could be defeated only if the opposition were united. If the opposition cannot unite, the former president threatens to throw his hat into the ring.

Since the likelihood is that the opposition will never unite—it has never done so since the 1985 snap election won by Ferdinand Marcos by the official count and claimed by Corazon Aquino in a People Power revolt—Estrada seems to have geared up for a big showdown with de Castro. Among all opposition candidates, the former movie actor in 180 films and veteran politician of 32 years, has gone to the most number of places and touched base with the most number of voters in his so-called Pasasalamat sa Bayan sorties.

The former broadcaster is tops among E or lowest income voters—25 percent vs. the second placer, Erap with 19 percent. Noli is also first among the D class—17 percent, vs. 16 percent for Escudero and 15 percent for Erap. Young Chiz, however, is the leader in Metro Manila with a formidable 26 percent. Noli is a poor second with 15 percent, Villar third with 14 percent, and Erap, the original masa president, fourth with 13 percent.

Sen. Mar Roxas is the first choice of Visayans with 22 percent, followed closely by Villar, who claims his mother is from Iloilo, with 20 percent. Noli is third with 18 percent, Escudero fourth with 15 percent, and Erap a distant fourth with a paltry 6 percent.

Erap thinks 2010 is still anybody’s game. So does Pulse Asia.

“Filipinos are still divided when it comes to their choice of their next president,” the respected pollster said. “If the May 2010 elections were held today, five individuals would garner about the same percentages of votes cast. These are de Castro [18 percent], Senator Escudero [17 percent)], Estrada [15 percent], Villar Jr. [14 percent], and Mar Roxas [13 percent].”

In Metro Manila and the best-off Class ABC, Senator Escudero (26 percent) is the top presidential bet. In Mindanao, former President Estrada (27 percent) and Vice-President de Castro (21 percent) have almost the same voter preferences.

The five presidential leading candidates also enjoy nearly the same levels of electoral support in the rest of Luzon (13 percent to 18 percent) and the most numerous Class D (14 percent to 17 percent).

About one in three Filipinos (34 percent) is voting for his/her preferred presidential bet because of the candidate’s being helpful to others, particularly the poor (27.3 percent) and OFWs (6.6 percent). Having many accomplishments is cited by just 11 percent.

A candidate’s being clean or not corrupt is cited by 7.1 percent, one’s goodness as a person (i.e., being mabait or mabuting tao) is mentioned by 5.6 percent, and one’s being a fighter (i.e., palaban) is identified by 5.4 percent as the reasons for favoring a presidential bet.

A third of respondents cited other attributes like: intelligence (5.0 percent), being a kababayan or townmate (3.0 percent), good intentions for the country (2.5 percent), independent or may sariling disposisyon (2.4 percent), good at what he/she does (2.3 percent), pro-people or makatao (1.9 percent), knowledgeable in the management of governmental affairs (1.8 percent), strict (1.6 percent), hardworking (1.6 percent), having the ability to fulfill promises made and other things (1.3 percent), loyal (1.3 percent), used to poverty or being poor (1.1 percent), young (1.1 percent), and approachable (1.0 percent)

FROM THE CAPITOL: Reining in the Arrogance of UC Administrators

Amendment would Protect Student and Taxpayer Dollars

By State Senator Leland Yee

In 1879, the University of California Board Of Regents were granted autonomy on most issues related to the management of the institution and thus rarely subject to public oversight. As a result, statutory laws are generally not binding over the UC, leaving an appointed and unresponsive board with exclusive authority to run the UC in a manner often not reflective of the will of the people.

Last month, I proudly joined UC students and employees to introduce bipartisan legislation that would bring much-needed public oversight, access, transparency, and accountability to the University. Senate Constitutional Amendment 21 would allow the voters to decide if the UC Regents deserve to maintain their autonomy and circumvent the tenets of good governance.
As an alumnus of UC, I believe it is long overdue for the UC administration to stop conducting the business of the public university system as if it were a private club. Only five other public universities in the country have a similar status, with UC receiving the greatest level of autonomy. This governance model – developed during the days of the horse and buggy – certainly should be revisited.

All too frequently, the University has violated the public trust, most recently when the Regents approved double digit compensation hikes for two new chancellors, with each earning over $400,000 in addition to the many perks and benefits enjoyed by these executives. Such compensation packages far exceed those earned by even the President of the United States and the Governor of California. In the same meeting these salaries packages were approved, the Regents significantly raised student fees and precluded public comment by holding the meeting via teleconference.

Despite several attempts to reign in such egregious actions, the questionable conduct continues – public records request are denied, workers are disenfranchised, high executives are granted “golden parachutes” and then immediately rehired, whistleblowers are retaliated against, and contracts are kept secret and often not put out to a competitive bidding process. In the case of the UC Retirement Plan, the management contracts were given to firms owned by family members of the UC Investment Advisory Committee. These high-priced pension consultants replaced professional university financial staff who managed the plan with far greater success.

The need for SCA 21 has never been greater. While students are hit with huge fee increases, top UC administrators receive exorbitant salary hikes. The UC Regents use Californians’ hard-earned tax dollars for luxurious holiday jaunts, to reward family and friends with lucrative public contracts, and to even install a dog run for one chancellor, while simultaneously allowing thousands of workers to live on poverty wages. In these tough economic times, California residents have been asked to sacrifice. Our state budget and our residents cannot afford to furnish university executives with lifestyles like that of the rich and famous.

Please join our bipartisan coalition supporting SCA 21 that will restore the luster of the University of California as an invaluable public asset, ensure taxpayer dollars are not used to line with gold the pockets of university bureaucrats, and create the oversight necessary to ensure the Regents keep the public interest at heart.

STREET TALK: The lesson of the hardboiled egg

By Greg Macabenta

You can learn a few things from the most unexpected situations. One of our sons asked my wife how to make a hardboiled egg.

Her reply: “Don’t put the egg in the water when it is already boiling. It will crack. Put it in the water just as it is beginning to heat up. That way, the shell will get used to the gradual increase in temperature up to boiling point.”

That was an Aha! moment for me.

Aha! So, that’s what the logic was behind the “revelation” of the departed Injustice Secretary Raul Gonzales about the distinct possibility of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo running for parliament in her district in Pampanga, should the system of government be changed.

That seeming foot-in-mouth statement of Gonzales was made so masterfully in that you couldn’t tell if he had made it up out of resentment at being dislodged from his cabinet post or if he was revealing a well-kept strategy of the Malacañang Department of Dirty Tricks or if it was a candid conjecture based on a purely hypothetical situation.

But, like the hardboiled egg being immersed in gradually heating water, the Gonzales statement or revelation or conjecture hardly created a stir amidst the uproar already caused by the railroading by the Lowest House of Resolution 1109 calling for a Con-Ass.

What has actually begun to happen in Manila, despite the sound and the fury of activists and oppositionists, is a process of either resignation to or increasing militancy against a move that, if the Senate is to be believed, is an exercise in futility.

But, you see, even the seeming nonchalance of the Senate, purportedly an independent body whose very existence is threatened by the introduction of a parliamentary system of government, may be part of the hardboiled egg strategy.

We should not overlook the fact that Arroyo is not entirely without allies in the Senate. You can also bet that those senators who are interested in becoming president will not mind being persuaded by Malacañang to look kindly on Arroyo should the presidential election actually happen.

In an extremely expensive presidential campaign, the persuasiveness of millions of pesos cannot be ignored.

Besides, if you check out the financial backers of some of the so-called “leading presidentiables” – the ones with double digit ratings – you will realize that these financiers have not been averse to playing ball with the Arroyo government – otherwise, how would they have survived and prospered in the years that she has been in office?

But what about the merger of Lakas and Kampi? Wasn’t that proof, as Arroyo put it, that the administration was preparing for an election?

The skeptics have pointed out, of course, that she didn’t specifically say “presidential elections,” as if it mattered much. Even if she did speficy that type of election, nothing would stop her from changing her mind and, to paraphrase Miriam Defensor Santiago, cutely admitting, “I lied.” Didn’t she change her mind before, when she declared that she wasn’t running after the term she had inherited from Erap Estrada had expired?:

On the other hand, you can also bet that, while Arroyo and her strategists are applying the hardboiled egg technique to prepare the minds of the people and the political opposition for the possibility of a charter change,20the same strategists are laying the groundwork for Plan B, which is for a presidential election to actually be held.

They are making the preparations for the presidential elections very obvious – what could be more obvious than the Lakas-Kampi merger – while making their Con-Ass moves just as obvious, the better to totally confuse the people.

This is part of the hardboiled egg strategy. The masses and even the media will eventually conclude that the Arroyo and her advisers have become confused and no longer know what they’re doing. That is designed to prompt the people and the opposition to let down their guard.
In fact, the clearest indication that the opposition’s guard is down is the fact that it s leaders are allowing themselves the luxury of intramurals. They are so confident that Arroyo or her anointed presidential candidate will be easy to defeat because of her extreme unpopularity, they’re beginning to lose sight of the fact that their ranks have begun to be infiltrated.

Plan B is already operational. Moves have already been taken to soften up leading presidential candidates with campaign resources in exchange for leniency on Arroyo and her cabal, in case of an opposition victory. Because politicians are the way they are – all subscribing to the classic principal of the late Senator Eulogio Rodriguez, Sr. that “politics is addition” - these candidates don’t mind talking to Arroyo’s emissaries and keeping their options open to making a deal. Of course. Plan C is operational as well, which is to ensure that the administration candidate for president will win – in case such a presidential candidate becomes absolutely necessary.

Now, what’s this about Arroyo running for congress after she relinquishes the presidency? According to this scuttlebutt, this explains her frequent visits to Pampanga – something, speculators say, she had never done before.

That, of course, is also part of the hardboiled egg strategy, which is to get the people used to the idea that she may actually want to hang on to power, any kind of power, but not necessarily as prime minister.

Is Arroyo as congressman to be counted as20Plan D?

Yeah, why not? The more plans people and the media attribute to Arroyo, the more confused they will all become. With so many options confronting them, they will begin to feel vulnerable and will be more amenable to a quid pro quo.

The idea is to reach a point, quite like the hardboiled egg, when nothing she and her cohorts do will shock or even surprise.

That’s when Arroyo will make the move of all moves, whether Plan A, B, C or D, designed to ensure that she will either remain in power or will be guaranteed immunity. At that point, her opponents will be more concerned with their interests, especially if profitable, than with exacting their pound of her flesh..

And the Filipino people will not complain – or crack up – because they will have become hardened to the harsh realities of an unprincipled politics - just like a hapless egg.
(gregmacabenta@hotmail.com)

FROM THE CAPITOL: ReformTheUC.com

By State Senator Leland Yee

In 1879, the University of California (UC) Board of Regents were granted autonomy on all issues related to the management of the institution and thus subject to public oversight on some budgetary matters. As a result, statutory laws are generally not binding over the University of California, leaving an appointed and unresponsive board with the exclusive authority to run the institution in a manner that reflects or rejects the will of the people.

Two weeks ago, I proudly joined University of California students and employees to introduce legislation that would bring much-needed public oversight, accountability, and transparency to the University of California. Senate Constitutional Amendment 21 would allow the voters to decide if the UC Board of Regents deserve to maintain its autonomy and be able to ignore laws passed in response to actions that seek to circumvent the tenets of good governance such as the recently approved exorbitant pay hikes for UC San Francisco and UC Davis executives.

The UC Regents and the UC Office of the President – supported by their numerous and well-compensated lobbyists and public relations representatives – are again fighting this commonsense reform, just as they have deliberately undermined every reasonable effort to correct their previous acts of misconduct. Unsurprisingly, the UC administration is attempting to characterize this effort as a takeover by the Legislature. And like many of their assertions through the years, their attempt at a public relations sleight of hand is both false or misleading.
The fact is the Legislature can enact statute that affects policies at the California State University as well as for the State’s community college system, yet the CSU and our community colleges are still fully administered and managed by the Board of Trustees and the Board of Governors respectively. SCA 21 would simply establish that the voters and taxpayers of California – via the Legislature - enjoy a similar relationship with what is now a completely unaccountable Board of Regents. Simply stated, the UC Regents would no longer be able to ignore legislation attempting to rein in their arrogance and excesses.

As an alumnus of UC Berkeley, I say, enough is enough. It is time for the UC administration to stop conducting the business of the public university system it oversees as if the UC was a private club. Only five other public universities in the country have a similar status, with UC receiving the greatest level of autonomy. This completely outdated model results in the Regents thinking they are above and beyond the law and the will of the people of California. They continuously violate the public trust with no respect for the students, faculty, workers and taxpayers.

The University has been plagued by numerous and all too frequent scandals over the years, most recently when the Regents approved double digit compensation hikes last month for two new campus chancellors, with each earning over $400,000 in addition to the many perks and benefits enjoyed by these executives. Such compensation packages far exceed those earned by event the President of the United States and the Governor of California. In the same meeting these salaries packages were approved, the Regents significantly raised student fees and precluded public comment by holding the meeting via teleconference.

To combat the egregious lack of public oversight over the Regents, I have launched reformtheUC.com. There you have the opportunity to contact your local elected officials and get them on board with the effort to bring accountability to this multi-billion dollar institution that affects the lives of all Californians. In addition, you can become a fan of this effort on Facebook. Your support will be vital in this effort, so get online and let your voice be heard.

STREET TALK: The swine flu and heroism

By Greg Macabenta

I understand everyone is concerned over the swine flu pandemic in the Philippines. But that’s nothing compared to the national illness being spread by the swine in the House of Reprehensibles (yes, that’s what the abbreviation Rep. before their names means.).

And we know who the swineherd is. She is Mistress of the Piggery by the Pasig where the trough is and where the pigs converge to gorge themselves.

With such disheartening news coming out of Manila, it was such a great relief to attend the first Gawad Kalinga Global Summit in Boston, Massachusetts from June 12 to 14.

It was a Gathering of Heroes.
Even those who would otherwise have been classified as villains back in the Philippines were at their heroic best during the three-day gathering of GK advocates and volunteers from all the world.

Most of the delegates were based in the US, but there was a large delegation from the Philippines that included Vice-President Noli de Castro; Senators Kiko Pangilinan and Migz Zubiri; Congressman Rufus Rodriguez; Agriculture Secretary Arthur Yap; Metro Manila Mayors Jojo Binay of Makati, Freddie Tinga of Taguig and Jun Bernabe of Paranaque; Governors LRay Villafuerte of Camarines Sur, Sally Ante Lee of Sorsogon and Victor Yap of Tarlac; provincial Mayors Dennis Go of Gerona, Tarlac, Tito Arion of Daet, Camarines Norte; and Sonia Lorenzo of San Isidro, Nueva Ecija; and Brig. Gen. Natalio Escarma III, Marine Corps Deputy Commander and Commander of the Marine Forces in Southern Philippines. There were two other provincial mayors, one from Iloilo and the other from Southern Leyte whose names I failed to note.

Among the former cabinet officials present were Nonong Cruz, DND, and Cito Lorenzo, Agriculture. Lorenzo is among the key movers of GK.

There were also delegates from Malaysia, Colombia and India and a large delegation from Singapore, which will host the next summit in 2010. The Colombia and India delegates said they would like to adopt the GK concept in their home countries.

Friday and Saturday, June 12 and 13, were spent on GK testimonials, an exercise in restoring faith in men and hope for the nation.Both days saw the public officials talk about the impact of GKon their respective constituencies and their own efforts to adopt the “GK Way” in their governance.

The unspoken rivalry between Makati, Taguig and Parañaque as the most progressive Metro Manila cities with enlightened policies and comprehensive social services for their residents was obvious in the presentations of Binay, Tinga and Bernabe. They all spoke with pride of their respective accomplishments. Despite my cynicism, I noted that the claims were grounded in fact.
I must confess to being partial to Makati and to Parañaque, being a resident of the latter and having created the slogan for the former (“Makati – mahalin natin. Atin ito”) over two decades ago. But after listening to Tinga speak, I could not help being impressed.

Another truly admirable presentation was that made by Gov. LRay Villafuerte of Camarines Sur (“Just call us CamSur”). The young son of a traditional politician, Luis Villafuerte of the Lowest House of Congress, dispelled the old saying that one cannot expect good fruit from a tree of questionable qualities (of course, the elder Villafuerte washed his hands of responsibility for the reprehensible plot to railroad the Con-Ass, so maybe he deserves some credit).

In the few years he has been in office, LRay Villafuerte, who currently chairs the League of Provinces of the Philippines, has transformed his province into one of the most progressive in the country, and the fastest growing in terms of investments, tourist traffic and revenues In recognition of his accomplishments, he was named Outstanding Young Pe rson of the World by the Junior Chamber International for Business and Entrepreneurship and conferred the TOYM Award for Entrepreneurship in Exports by the Philippine Jaycees. He also received the Tourism Entrepreneur of the Philippines Award from the Department of Tourism and the Philippine Center for Entrepreneurship.

In subsequent conversations I had with Jojo Binay and Jun Bernabe, I pointed out the contrast between what I had heard from them and what was routinely written about the national government, specifically about the occupants of Malacañang and Congress.

“The real hope of the nation are the LGUs,” said Binay. “If, at the city and municipal level, there is progressive governance and a delivery of social services, the provinces will follow suit. And the rest of the country will also be progressive.”
To say that Binay provides adequate social services to his constituents is actually an understatement. Makati has a hospital and a university for its citizens and even the squatters who have been relocated to a 3.2 hectare location in San Jose Del Monte are entitled to unheard of privileges.

Unlike other cities that ejected their squatters, relocated them to far-flung places and left them to fend for themselves, Makati has allowed former “informal settlers” to avail of the city’s social services, including free education.

A project of GK and the Makati government, the “Dreamland” will have 480 homes in a community complete with a school, a medical clinic and a chapel. Makati purchased the land and provides the civil works and community facilities while GK handles project management, as well as the spiritual and moral guidance required to truly transform the former slum dwellers..
In his presentation, Binay said that the city has provided attractive tax incentives to private companies that have contributed to the project, such that, in one pledging session alone, they raised P11 million.

Despite owning a home in Parañaque for the past 41 years, it was only at the GK Global Summit that I met Jun Bernabe, a junior of the multiple-term mayor Florencio Bernabe, Sr. But he impressed me with his vision for the city and its improved services.

I acknowledged that I actually had a pleasant experience at city hall on my last trip to Manila. I had decided to apply for a senior citizen’s card, having heard about the many privileges enjoyed by people in that age category. I had expected the usual long wait and disinterested over-the-counter attitude of the stereotypical government employee. But not in that instance. When I asked how I could apply for the senior’s card, I was ushered by a clerk to another office in a far corner of the building and entrusted to a team that immediately attended to my needs. In 15 minutes, I had my senior’s card, along with literature on privileges and how I c ould avail of them. Two other mayors who should have been present at the GK event and would have bared impressive city histories were Sonny Belmonte of Quezon City and Bayani Fernando of Marikina. They, too, have proven the validity of Binay’s thesis that true progress and reform can happen at the local level.

One can argue that the Gawad Kalinga Global Summit simply allowed the government officials present to show their “good side” but that they inevitably have their “bad” side – the side of kickbacks, overpricing, ghost employees, monopoly of businesses and the rackets and every conceivable sin attached to politicians.

But that, precisely, is what I find admirable in Gawad Kalinga and its founder, Tony Meloto.
Two years ago, at the 10th Filipinas Magazine Achievement Awards – which usually confers the honor only to Filipinos in America – we made an exception of Tony Meloto . We gave him an Award for International Achievement.

In doing so, I pointed out that, while Meloto is a bona fide hero, his real heroism is in his ability to bring out the heroes in everyone else.

Maybe, Meloto should be asked to clean out the Pig Sty by the Pasig.
(gregmacabenta@hotmail.com)