By Tony Lopez
Will the May 2010 presidential election be a fight between Vice President Noli de Castro and former President Joseph Ejercito Estrada?
That seems to be the emerging trend, based on a survey conducted May 4 to 17, 2009 by Pulse Asia. Noli de Castro led the pack with 18 percent of voters picking him, followed closely by popular young Sen, Francis “Chiz” Escudero, 17 percent, and Estrada, 15 percent.
The survey involved 1,200 respondents and has a three percentage-point margin of error. That means de Castro, Escudero and Estrada are in a statistical tie for first place.
An Erap-Noli tussle is possible only if the ousted former president were allowed by the Supreme Court to run. Estrada thinks the Supreme Court will have no choice but qualify him to run based on the doctrine of sovereign will of the people.
In second tier are: former Senate President Manuel Villar Jr, 14 percent and Sen. Manuel Araneta “Mar” Roxas 2nd, 13 percent. In the third group are single-digit presidentiables: Sen. Loren Legarda, 7 percent; Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, 4 percent; Sen. Panfilo Lacson, 4 percent; Sen. Richard Gordon, 1 percent; telco tycoon Manuel Pangilinan, 1 percent; Chief Justice Reynato Puno, 1 percent; and Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, 1 percent.
Estrada thinks Noli de Castro is the administration’s frontrunner candidate. That being the case, the vice president could be defeated only if the opposition were united. If the opposition cannot unite, the former president threatens to throw his hat into the ring.
Since the likelihood is that the opposition will never unite—it has never done so since the 1985 snap election won by Ferdinand Marcos by the official count and claimed by Corazon Aquino in a People Power revolt—Estrada seems to have geared up for a big showdown with de Castro. Among all opposition candidates, the former movie actor in 180 films and veteran politician of 32 years, has gone to the most number of places and touched base with the most number of voters in his so-called Pasasalamat sa Bayan sorties.
The former broadcaster is tops among E or lowest income voters—25 percent vs. the second placer, Erap with 19 percent. Noli is also first among the D class—17 percent, vs. 16 percent for Escudero and 15 percent for Erap. Young Chiz, however, is the leader in Metro Manila with a formidable 26 percent. Noli is a poor second with 15 percent, Villar third with 14 percent, and Erap, the original masa president, fourth with 13 percent.
Sen. Mar Roxas is the first choice of Visayans with 22 percent, followed closely by Villar, who claims his mother is from Iloilo, with 20 percent. Noli is third with 18 percent, Escudero fourth with 15 percent, and Erap a distant fourth with a paltry 6 percent.
Erap thinks 2010 is still anybody’s game. So does Pulse Asia.
“Filipinos are still divided when it comes to their choice of their next president,” the respected pollster said. “If the May 2010 elections were held today, five individuals would garner about the same percentages of votes cast. These are de Castro [18 percent], Senator Escudero [17 percent)], Estrada [15 percent], Villar Jr. [14 percent], and Mar Roxas [13 percent].”
In Metro Manila and the best-off Class ABC, Senator Escudero (26 percent) is the top presidential bet. In Mindanao, former President Estrada (27 percent) and Vice-President de Castro (21 percent) have almost the same voter preferences.
The five presidential leading candidates also enjoy nearly the same levels of electoral support in the rest of Luzon (13 percent to 18 percent) and the most numerous Class D (14 percent to 17 percent).
About one in three Filipinos (34 percent) is voting for his/her preferred presidential bet because of the candidate’s being helpful to others, particularly the poor (27.3 percent) and OFWs (6.6 percent). Having many accomplishments is cited by just 11 percent.
A candidate’s being clean or not corrupt is cited by 7.1 percent, one’s goodness as a person (i.e., being mabait or mabuting tao) is mentioned by 5.6 percent, and one’s being a fighter (i.e., palaban) is identified by 5.4 percent as the reasons for favoring a presidential bet.
A third of respondents cited other attributes like: intelligence (5.0 percent), being a kababayan or townmate (3.0 percent), good intentions for the country (2.5 percent), independent or may sariling disposisyon (2.4 percent), good at what he/she does (2.3 percent), pro-people or makatao (1.9 percent), knowledgeable in the management of governmental affairs (1.8 percent), strict (1.6 percent), hardworking (1.6 percent), having the ability to fulfill promises made and other things (1.3 percent), loyal (1.3 percent), used to poverty or being poor (1.1 percent), young (1.1 percent), and approachable (1.0 percent)
Will the May 2010 presidential election be a fight between Vice President Noli de Castro and former President Joseph Ejercito Estrada?That seems to be the emerging trend, based on a survey conducted May 4 to 17, 2009 by Pulse Asia. Noli de Castro led the pack with 18 percent of voters picking him, followed closely by popular young Sen, Francis “Chiz” Escudero, 17 percent, and Estrada, 15 percent.
The survey involved 1,200 respondents and has a three percentage-point margin of error. That means de Castro, Escudero and Estrada are in a statistical tie for first place.
An Erap-Noli tussle is possible only if the ousted former president were allowed by the Supreme Court to run. Estrada thinks the Supreme Court will have no choice but qualify him to run based on the doctrine of sovereign will of the people.
In second tier are: former Senate President Manuel Villar Jr, 14 percent and Sen. Manuel Araneta “Mar” Roxas 2nd, 13 percent. In the third group are single-digit presidentiables: Sen. Loren Legarda, 7 percent; Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, 4 percent; Sen. Panfilo Lacson, 4 percent; Sen. Richard Gordon, 1 percent; telco tycoon Manuel Pangilinan, 1 percent; Chief Justice Reynato Puno, 1 percent; and Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, 1 percent.
Estrada thinks Noli de Castro is the administration’s frontrunner candidate. That being the case, the vice president could be defeated only if the opposition were united. If the opposition cannot unite, the former president threatens to throw his hat into the ring.
Since the likelihood is that the opposition will never unite—it has never done so since the 1985 snap election won by Ferdinand Marcos by the official count and claimed by Corazon Aquino in a People Power revolt—Estrada seems to have geared up for a big showdown with de Castro. Among all opposition candidates, the former movie actor in 180 films and veteran politician of 32 years, has gone to the most number of places and touched base with the most number of voters in his so-called Pasasalamat sa Bayan sorties.
The former broadcaster is tops among E or lowest income voters—25 percent vs. the second placer, Erap with 19 percent. Noli is also first among the D class—17 percent, vs. 16 percent for Escudero and 15 percent for Erap. Young Chiz, however, is the leader in Metro Manila with a formidable 26 percent. Noli is a poor second with 15 percent, Villar third with 14 percent, and Erap, the original masa president, fourth with 13 percent.
Sen. Mar Roxas is the first choice of Visayans with 22 percent, followed closely by Villar, who claims his mother is from Iloilo, with 20 percent. Noli is third with 18 percent, Escudero fourth with 15 percent, and Erap a distant fourth with a paltry 6 percent.
Erap thinks 2010 is still anybody’s game. So does Pulse Asia.
“Filipinos are still divided when it comes to their choice of their next president,” the respected pollster said. “If the May 2010 elections were held today, five individuals would garner about the same percentages of votes cast. These are de Castro [18 percent], Senator Escudero [17 percent)], Estrada [15 percent], Villar Jr. [14 percent], and Mar Roxas [13 percent].”
In Metro Manila and the best-off Class ABC, Senator Escudero (26 percent) is the top presidential bet. In Mindanao, former President Estrada (27 percent) and Vice-President de Castro (21 percent) have almost the same voter preferences.
The five presidential leading candidates also enjoy nearly the same levels of electoral support in the rest of Luzon (13 percent to 18 percent) and the most numerous Class D (14 percent to 17 percent).
About one in three Filipinos (34 percent) is voting for his/her preferred presidential bet because of the candidate’s being helpful to others, particularly the poor (27.3 percent) and OFWs (6.6 percent). Having many accomplishments is cited by just 11 percent.
A candidate’s being clean or not corrupt is cited by 7.1 percent, one’s goodness as a person (i.e., being mabait or mabuting tao) is mentioned by 5.6 percent, and one’s being a fighter (i.e., palaban) is identified by 5.4 percent as the reasons for favoring a presidential bet.
A third of respondents cited other attributes like: intelligence (5.0 percent), being a kababayan or townmate (3.0 percent), good intentions for the country (2.5 percent), independent or may sariling disposisyon (2.4 percent), good at what he/she does (2.3 percent), pro-people or makatao (1.9 percent), knowledgeable in the management of governmental affairs (1.8 percent), strict (1.6 percent), hardworking (1.6 percent), having the ability to fulfill promises made and other things (1.3 percent), loyal (1.3 percent), used to poverty or being poor (1.1 percent), young (1.1 percent), and approachable (1.0 percent)
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