May 10, 2010 is D-day for the Philippine’s first electronically conducted elections – a historical but potentially explosive event.
Independent surveys show Presidential candidate Senator Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino Jr. ahead of his nearest rival Senator Manuel Villar by double digits. Perceived as a moral leader, the only son of the martyred Benigno Aquino and the much admired President Corazon Aquino is expected to win - but only if the votes are counted honestly. Many doubt that the government’s Commission on Elections (Comelec) which runs the elections will make him win. An anomalous 1940 constitutional provision gives the president the power to appoint Comelec’s Commissioners. As such, Comelec is as honest or dishonest as the president wants it to be. “The President owns Comelec.” say critics of the troubled system and wants it amended. “The Supreme Court acting en banc should choose the Commisioners in a blind lotto pull from a long list of qualified candidates.” says one. Great idea.
President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo has the lowest popularity and trust ratings ever of any sitting president in the nation’s history. Like the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos and his wife Imelda, she and her husband are perceived to have grossly enriched themselves through massive corruption. Her 9 ½ year presidency is marked by one scandal after another (Read “Garci”,” “Jocjoc”, “ZTE”,”Northrail-Southrail”, “Smartmatic-Sahi TIM”, “midnight appointments”, “Ampatuans”, etc.
Term limits prevent her running for re-election – but she is perceived to be secretly supporting Aquino’s nearest rival Senator Manuel Villar – the “Villaroyo” partnership. Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro is her party’s official candidate but is among the tailenders because of identification with Arroyo – a kiss of death. Aquino vows to prosecute Arroyo and her husband for corruption. Villar remains mum on that issue. Her presidency ends on June 30, 2010 – but she continues to fill important government positions with “midnight” appointments – including positioning loyal junior military officers in key commands.
Last March, contrary to precedent, the Arroyo controlled Supreme Court confirmed her right to appoint the next Chief Justice even if her presidency ends in a few days – causing mass protests.
The credibility-challenged Comelec remains challenged. Well respected election transparency advocates former Chief Justice Art Panganiban and computer expert ex IBM executive Gus Lagman express public concerns: The scanning mechanisms for detecting fake ballots have been disabled; Clear plastic ballot boxes have been replaced with opaque black boxes; Comelec repeatedly refuses to have the entire source code (the brains of the system) completely examined and validated to ensure no hidden addition/subtraction cheat instructions are there. Lagman and other experts suggest a parallel manual count at the precinct level: “Verifiable paper evidence of precinct totals can be compared with those at the central office which if consistent will persuade that the elections are honest.” The parallel manual count demanded by various sectors is only for the position of president - easily manageable.
Notwithstanding, Comelec rejected this demand – citing expense and delay issues. At worst, the delay is one to a few hours and the additional expense involves mostly the hiring of two more people per precinct – a small price to pay for honest elections. Comelec instead announced a partial manual count audit in some precincts. The computer experts say, “Selective honesty with some precincts proves nothing.”
Many Aquino’s supporters and independent observers expect that Arroyo’s Comelec will hand the presidency to Villar.
Arroyo may possibly have something more insidious in mind. Consider these scenarios:
Plan A. Arroyo and her Machiavellian advisers know that predictably, Aquino supporters will react and take to the streets if Comelec declares Villar as winner. Tumultuous rioting and demonstrations will follow. Some demonstrators and police will be killed or hurt. Bombs will mysteriously explode in different locations and blamed on the communists, Muslim separatists or Aquino sympathizers. Then she declares martial law on grounds of preserving peace and order. Her puppet Supreme Court affirms the legality of her declaration. She stays on as president supported by well rewarded already positioned military officers. Political enemies are arrested, given the option to join her or else imprisoned on false charges. Others are simply eliminated – kept in secret prisons or simply disappear. Journalists are bribed and the honest ones muzzled. This is simply the old Marcos formula – but the problem is that it works in the Philippine setting where more than enough mercenary politicians, journalists, military elements and even religious characters are readily utilizable. This plan is an option if Noynoy’s lead is only by a single digit. I hope and pray this scenario does not become a reality.
Filipinos desperately need the international community’s help and mass activism. Arroyo must be pressured to hold clean elections and allow a parallel manual count. Intentions to declare martial law must be discouraged. Otherwise bloody hell could break loose when the election results are out and when the smoke clears – democracy in the Philippines is no more and the world will have another oppressive military dictatorship.
Plan B. Arroyo is also running for Congresswoman in her province of Pampanga where she is a shoo-in. With all the opportunities to do so much good for the country as President for 9 ½ years which she wasted, why would she now seek a much lower position? It’s certainly naive to think that she just wants to serve the people of Pampanga. More likely than not, it’s part of an alternative plan to seek the Speakership, then move for charter change and then become Prime Minister. If Noynoy’s lead in the polls is so overwhelming that it’s clearly impossible for him to lose without being cheated by GMA’s Comelec, this is her best option. She would invite international condemnation and prolonged siege demonstrations if she continued with plan A – making it impossible to reign as a holdover President.
As of this writing, Noynoy is overwhelmingly ahead of Villar by 19 points. He will be president unless Arroyo throws all caution to the winds and proceeds with Plan A. As president, Noynoy will have a very difficult start: Arroyo has most of the Congressmen in her pockets, owns the Supreme Court, has her midnight appointees in place – and the country’s coffers are almost empty from exorbitant rushed expenditures allegedly for kickback purposes. Still, Plan B is the lesser evil. Either way – plan A or B, we have a long road ahead of us in our continued quest for a better life for all Filipinos.
Atty. Laguatan is officially certified by the California State Bar as an expert/specialist lawyer. A lawyer’s magazine rates him as among the best five percent best lawyers in America. For communications: 455 Hickey Blvd. Ste. 516, Daly City, Ca 94015, 101 California Ste. 2450, San Francisco, Ca 94015 Tel 650 991 1154,
Fax 650 991 1186 email laguatanlaw@gmail.com
Independent surveys show Presidential candidate Senator Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino Jr. ahead of his nearest rival Senator Manuel Villar by double digits. Perceived as a moral leader, the only son of the martyred Benigno Aquino and the much admired President Corazon Aquino is expected to win - but only if the votes are counted honestly. Many doubt that the government’s Commission on Elections (Comelec) which runs the elections will make him win. An anomalous 1940 constitutional provision gives the president the power to appoint Comelec’s Commissioners. As such, Comelec is as honest or dishonest as the president wants it to be. “The President owns Comelec.” say critics of the troubled system and wants it amended. “The Supreme Court acting en banc should choose the Commisioners in a blind lotto pull from a long list of qualified candidates.” says one. Great idea.
President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo has the lowest popularity and trust ratings ever of any sitting president in the nation’s history. Like the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos and his wife Imelda, she and her husband are perceived to have grossly enriched themselves through massive corruption. Her 9 ½ year presidency is marked by one scandal after another (Read “Garci”,” “Jocjoc”, “ZTE”,”Northrail-Southrail”, “Smartmatic-Sahi TIM”, “midnight appointments”, “Ampatuans”, etc.
Term limits prevent her running for re-election – but she is perceived to be secretly supporting Aquino’s nearest rival Senator Manuel Villar – the “Villaroyo” partnership. Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro is her party’s official candidate but is among the tailenders because of identification with Arroyo – a kiss of death. Aquino vows to prosecute Arroyo and her husband for corruption. Villar remains mum on that issue. Her presidency ends on June 30, 2010 – but she continues to fill important government positions with “midnight” appointments – including positioning loyal junior military officers in key commands.
Last March, contrary to precedent, the Arroyo controlled Supreme Court confirmed her right to appoint the next Chief Justice even if her presidency ends in a few days – causing mass protests.
The credibility-challenged Comelec remains challenged. Well respected election transparency advocates former Chief Justice Art Panganiban and computer expert ex IBM executive Gus Lagman express public concerns: The scanning mechanisms for detecting fake ballots have been disabled; Clear plastic ballot boxes have been replaced with opaque black boxes; Comelec repeatedly refuses to have the entire source code (the brains of the system) completely examined and validated to ensure no hidden addition/subtraction cheat instructions are there. Lagman and other experts suggest a parallel manual count at the precinct level: “Verifiable paper evidence of precinct totals can be compared with those at the central office which if consistent will persuade that the elections are honest.” The parallel manual count demanded by various sectors is only for the position of president - easily manageable.
Notwithstanding, Comelec rejected this demand – citing expense and delay issues. At worst, the delay is one to a few hours and the additional expense involves mostly the hiring of two more people per precinct – a small price to pay for honest elections. Comelec instead announced a partial manual count audit in some precincts. The computer experts say, “Selective honesty with some precincts proves nothing.”
Many Aquino’s supporters and independent observers expect that Arroyo’s Comelec will hand the presidency to Villar.
Arroyo may possibly have something more insidious in mind. Consider these scenarios:
Plan A. Arroyo and her Machiavellian advisers know that predictably, Aquino supporters will react and take to the streets if Comelec declares Villar as winner. Tumultuous rioting and demonstrations will follow. Some demonstrators and police will be killed or hurt. Bombs will mysteriously explode in different locations and blamed on the communists, Muslim separatists or Aquino sympathizers. Then she declares martial law on grounds of preserving peace and order. Her puppet Supreme Court affirms the legality of her declaration. She stays on as president supported by well rewarded already positioned military officers. Political enemies are arrested, given the option to join her or else imprisoned on false charges. Others are simply eliminated – kept in secret prisons or simply disappear. Journalists are bribed and the honest ones muzzled. This is simply the old Marcos formula – but the problem is that it works in the Philippine setting where more than enough mercenary politicians, journalists, military elements and even religious characters are readily utilizable. This plan is an option if Noynoy’s lead is only by a single digit. I hope and pray this scenario does not become a reality.
Filipinos desperately need the international community’s help and mass activism. Arroyo must be pressured to hold clean elections and allow a parallel manual count. Intentions to declare martial law must be discouraged. Otherwise bloody hell could break loose when the election results are out and when the smoke clears – democracy in the Philippines is no more and the world will have another oppressive military dictatorship.
Plan B. Arroyo is also running for Congresswoman in her province of Pampanga where she is a shoo-in. With all the opportunities to do so much good for the country as President for 9 ½ years which she wasted, why would she now seek a much lower position? It’s certainly naive to think that she just wants to serve the people of Pampanga. More likely than not, it’s part of an alternative plan to seek the Speakership, then move for charter change and then become Prime Minister. If Noynoy’s lead in the polls is so overwhelming that it’s clearly impossible for him to lose without being cheated by GMA’s Comelec, this is her best option. She would invite international condemnation and prolonged siege demonstrations if she continued with plan A – making it impossible to reign as a holdover President.
As of this writing, Noynoy is overwhelmingly ahead of Villar by 19 points. He will be president unless Arroyo throws all caution to the winds and proceeds with Plan A. As president, Noynoy will have a very difficult start: Arroyo has most of the Congressmen in her pockets, owns the Supreme Court, has her midnight appointees in place – and the country’s coffers are almost empty from exorbitant rushed expenditures allegedly for kickback purposes. Still, Plan B is the lesser evil. Either way – plan A or B, we have a long road ahead of us in our continued quest for a better life for all Filipinos.
Atty. Laguatan is officially certified by the California State Bar as an expert/specialist lawyer. A lawyer’s magazine rates him as among the best five percent best lawyers in America. For communications: 455 Hickey Blvd. Ste. 516, Daly City, Ca 94015, 101 California Ste. 2450, San Francisco, Ca 94015 Tel 650 991 1154,
Fax 650 991 1186 email laguatanlaw@gmail.com
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