By Tony Lopez
THIS you have to reconcile. The economy has been growing incredibly fast. President Benigno Simeon Aquino III has claimed credit for it. He has been in office for almost a year now. He has a right to assert his bragging right.
But during the same period, unemployment was rising faster, at an even more incredible pace.
This is happening at a time when the sitting government is supposedly clean. Sa matuwid na daan. Kung walang corrupt, walang mahirap. [In the straight path. When no one is corrupt, no one is poor.]
In 2010, the economy grew at its fastest in 30 years at 7.6 percent (using 2000 as the new base year; growth was 7.3 percent with the old base year).
Between September 2010 and March 4-7, 2011, the number of jobless swelled by a stupendous 3.9 million, from 7.4 million to 11.3 million. This is according to the Social Weather Stations survey of March 4-7, 2011 published May 25.
Of the 11.3 million jobless, 9 percent or 1.017 million were fired; another 10 percent or 1.13 million resigned. Total fired and resigned: 19 percent or 2.147 million.
The 2.147 million is the number of people who lost their jobs in six of the 11 months of the administration of President Aquino III, an economist by education. That’s an average of 357,833 job loss per month. These are people with jobs when Aquino took office. By March or earlier, they had lost their jobs.
Now, 357,833 is equivalent to 357,833 families or almost two million Filipinos. Incredible enough, majority of Filipinos still love or like their laid-back Porsche-loving president.
Ordinarily, even if the president of the Philippines were a dog and is doing nothing or is lazy, the economy by itself, by sheer momentum or gravity, should create up to a million jobs a year. A good president adds another one million jobs, for a total of two million job creation per year. That is not happening.
Between September 2010 and November 2010, 2.5 million became or were declared jobless. From November 2010 to early March 2011, an additional 1.4 million became jobless. Total addition to the jobless ranks in less than six months –3.9 million (2.5 million plus 1.4 million).
Clearly, the economy of President Aquino III is not only not creating jobs. It is destroying jobs. If he wants to claim credit for the high economic growth, he should also take the blame for the massive job losses which are unprecedented in scale, severity and sustainability.
In the Middle East and North Africa, high unemployment, along with growing illiteracy, triggered the so-called Arab Spring whereby thousands of young people, mostly unemployed, spilled into the streets in mass protests. The phenomenon has also erupted in Greece and Spain which has the highest unemployment rate in the whole of Europe.
The Philippines has among the highest unemployment rates in Asia. If you include underemployment which counts people working part-time and people overqualified for their present job, one in every four adult Filipinos is jobless.
In fact, the SWS March 2011 survey has much higher figures. It says adult unemployment rose to 27.2 percent, or an estimated 11.3 million, from 18.9 percent (7.4 million) in September 2010 and 23.5 percent (9.9 million) in November 2010.
Since jobs are being lost at a massive scale, the number of poor people naturally is also increasing. No wonder, President Aquino’s job approval ratings are nose-diving with him barely a year in office. He is the only president in the last quarter century whose job approval rating went down within his or her first year.
If the fastest economic growth in the last quarter century cannot create jobs, how much more is a slower growth rate.
Indeed, the economy is slowing down. First quarter growth in GDP (Gross Domestic Product or the value of goods and services produced during the period) was 4.9 percent—lower than forecast and lower than the performance than half of countries of Southeast Asia.
The amazing thing about the slow GDP rise in the first quarter is not that the government didn’t have money. It had plenty of money. Its surplus was a record in the last 25 years.
Why didn’t the Aquino government spend the money? There are two reasons: One, it didn’t know what to do or where to spend the money because until now, programs or projects are not clearly defined and in place. Two, the administration has this fixation with limiting spending deficit, something like less than three percent of GDP.
The budget to deficit ratio has long ago been discarded as a measure of a country’s financial discipline or economic stability. Domi-nique Strauss-Kahn, before he got embroiled in his latest sexual escapade, discarded it when he was the IMF managing director. DSK, an economist, found out the rich countries were the biggest violators of the deficit-to-GDP ratio ceiling.
THIS you have to reconcile. The economy has been growing incredibly fast. President Benigno Simeon Aquino III has claimed credit for it. He has been in office for almost a year now. He has a right to assert his bragging right.
But during the same period, unemployment was rising faster, at an even more incredible pace.
This is happening at a time when the sitting government is supposedly clean. Sa matuwid na daan. Kung walang corrupt, walang mahirap. [In the straight path. When no one is corrupt, no one is poor.]
In 2010, the economy grew at its fastest in 30 years at 7.6 percent (using 2000 as the new base year; growth was 7.3 percent with the old base year).
Between September 2010 and March 4-7, 2011, the number of jobless swelled by a stupendous 3.9 million, from 7.4 million to 11.3 million. This is according to the Social Weather Stations survey of March 4-7, 2011 published May 25.
Of the 11.3 million jobless, 9 percent or 1.017 million were fired; another 10 percent or 1.13 million resigned. Total fired and resigned: 19 percent or 2.147 million.
The 2.147 million is the number of people who lost their jobs in six of the 11 months of the administration of President Aquino III, an economist by education. That’s an average of 357,833 job loss per month. These are people with jobs when Aquino took office. By March or earlier, they had lost their jobs.
Now, 357,833 is equivalent to 357,833 families or almost two million Filipinos. Incredible enough, majority of Filipinos still love or like their laid-back Porsche-loving president.
Ordinarily, even if the president of the Philippines were a dog and is doing nothing or is lazy, the economy by itself, by sheer momentum or gravity, should create up to a million jobs a year. A good president adds another one million jobs, for a total of two million job creation per year. That is not happening.
Between September 2010 and November 2010, 2.5 million became or were declared jobless. From November 2010 to early March 2011, an additional 1.4 million became jobless. Total addition to the jobless ranks in less than six months –3.9 million (2.5 million plus 1.4 million).
Clearly, the economy of President Aquino III is not only not creating jobs. It is destroying jobs. If he wants to claim credit for the high economic growth, he should also take the blame for the massive job losses which are unprecedented in scale, severity and sustainability.
In the Middle East and North Africa, high unemployment, along with growing illiteracy, triggered the so-called Arab Spring whereby thousands of young people, mostly unemployed, spilled into the streets in mass protests. The phenomenon has also erupted in Greece and Spain which has the highest unemployment rate in the whole of Europe.
The Philippines has among the highest unemployment rates in Asia. If you include underemployment which counts people working part-time and people overqualified for their present job, one in every four adult Filipinos is jobless.
In fact, the SWS March 2011 survey has much higher figures. It says adult unemployment rose to 27.2 percent, or an estimated 11.3 million, from 18.9 percent (7.4 million) in September 2010 and 23.5 percent (9.9 million) in November 2010.
Since jobs are being lost at a massive scale, the number of poor people naturally is also increasing. No wonder, President Aquino’s job approval ratings are nose-diving with him barely a year in office. He is the only president in the last quarter century whose job approval rating went down within his or her first year.
If the fastest economic growth in the last quarter century cannot create jobs, how much more is a slower growth rate.
Indeed, the economy is slowing down. First quarter growth in GDP (Gross Domestic Product or the value of goods and services produced during the period) was 4.9 percent—lower than forecast and lower than the performance than half of countries of Southeast Asia.
The amazing thing about the slow GDP rise in the first quarter is not that the government didn’t have money. It had plenty of money. Its surplus was a record in the last 25 years.
Why didn’t the Aquino government spend the money? There are two reasons: One, it didn’t know what to do or where to spend the money because until now, programs or projects are not clearly defined and in place. Two, the administration has this fixation with limiting spending deficit, something like less than three percent of GDP.
The budget to deficit ratio has long ago been discarded as a measure of a country’s financial discipline or economic stability. Domi-nique Strauss-Kahn, before he got embroiled in his latest sexual escapade, discarded it when he was the IMF managing director. DSK, an economist, found out the rich countries were the biggest violators of the deficit-to-GDP ratio ceiling.
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